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The thing that connects the Islamabad collapse to Haiti's 30 dead is simpler than it looks. One is a failure of states with too much power to agree. The other is a failure of a state with almost none to protect people visiting their own history. The distance between those two failure modes is the entire map of 2026.

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The answer, probably, is the energy market. Oil traders do not wait for diplomatic elegance. With the Gulf still partly blocked and tankers sitting idle, every day without a signed agreement is another day Brent climbs and household energy bills follow. The talks were not really about peace. They were about buying time for markets, and markets clocked out anyway.

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